Nuclear War

The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to several factors: Iran's potential nuclear test, North Korea's steadfast commitment to its nuclear arsenal despite international pressure, and Lithuania's move to lift its ban on nuclear weapons deployment. These developments are occurring in a context of eroding arms control agreements, such as the INF Treaty and New START, and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by major powers. Additionally, the emergence of AI in military decision-making, as evidenced by recent incidents of AI misjudgments, adds a layer of unpredictability and risk to nuclear stability. The combination of these factors suggests a deteriorating global nuclear security environment, reminiscent of Cold War-era tensions but with new technological challenges.