Facilitate renewed dialogue on arms control agreements to address emerging technologies.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Current assessment
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to increased weaponization of AI, advancements in space-based military capabilities, and ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals.
September 22, 2026
Trend
Daily score history for Nuclear War.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The global nuclear threat landscape is becoming increasingly complex with the modernization of nuclear arsenals, such as the completion of the B61-13, and the development of space-based military capabilities, including the US's admission of having weapons in orbit. Additionally, the weaponization of AI by state actors like Russia to enhance military capabilities, including drones and cyber warfare, adds a layer of unpredictability and potential for escalation. The breakdown of traditional arms control treaties and reduced communication channels further exacerbate these risks, making the strategic environment more volatile and less predictable than in previous decades.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Increase transparency and communication channels between nuclear-armed states to prevent misunderstandings.
Develop protocols for the responsible use of AI in military applications to prevent escalation.
Advocate for public awareness and education on the implications of modernized nuclear arsenals and space-based weapons.
Collaborate with governments to ensure AI technologies are developed with ethical considerations and safeguards.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- B61-13 first production unit completed ahead of schedule Publisher: Sandia Published June 16, 2025
- Sandia’s unique role in nuclear deterrence Publisher: Sandia Published April 22, 2025
- ‘It was time’ to admit US has weapons in orbit, Space Force’s new leader says Publisher: DefenseOne Published September 15, 2026
- US military has ‘on-orbit’ space weapons, Air Force Secretary reveals Publisher: DefenseOne Published September 14, 2026
- Russia is weaponizing US-built AI to make killer drones, cyberattack bots, and fake news Publisher: DefenseOne Published September 11, 2026