Facilitate renewed arms control negotiations to address the modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Current assessment
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to increased tensions, modernization of arsenals, and weakened communication channels between nuclear powers.
September 18, 2026
Trend
Daily score history for Nuclear War.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
Recent developments indicate a troubling trend towards increased nuclear risk, with the Pentagon seeking expanded nuclear options and a revival of Cold War doctrines that lower the threshold for nuclear use. Additionally, North Korea's firm stance on maintaining its nuclear arsenal, coupled with Iran's ambiguous nuclear intentions, contribute to regional instability. The breakdown of traditional arms control treaties and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by major powers further exacerbate the risk. These factors, combined with the potential for AI to influence nuclear decision-making, underscore a high-risk environment reminiscent of past nuclear crises but with added complexity due to technological advancements.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Establish and enhance crisis communication channels between nuclear-armed states to prevent miscalculations.
Conduct joint exercises focused on de-escalation and nuclear risk reduction strategies.
Advocate for transparency and public awareness campaigns about the risks of nuclear weapons and emerging technologies.
Develop and implement robust safeguards for AI systems that could impact nuclear command and control.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- North Korea says U.S.-led arms buildup justifies expanding nuclear force Publisher: The Japan Times Published September 17, 2026
- BRICS leaders voice concern over ‘growing risks’ of nuclear conflict Publisher: The Hindu Published September 13, 2026
- Pentagon’s secret plan: Reviving Cold War doctrines to lower the threshold for nuclear war Publisher: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Published September 11, 2026
- From Nuclear Threshold to Nuclear Weapons? Reassessing Iran's Nuclear Doctrine Publisher: inss.org.il Published August 13, 2026
- Pentagon wants ‘expanding options’ for nuclear weapons, officials say Publisher: Breaking Defense Published August 7, 2026