Facilitate urgent diplomatic dialogues between NATO and Russia to establish new communication protocols and de-escalation measures.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Current assessment
The current nuclear threat level is heightened due to increased nuclear exercises by Russia and Belarus, alongside escalating rhetoric and military posturing involving NATO and Iran.
May 22, 2026
Trend
Daily score history for Nuclear War.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The global nuclear threat is elevated as Russia conducts extensive nuclear drills with Belarus, moving nuclear weapons into the region and signaling a potential shift in nuclear posture. This is compounded by NATO's warnings of severe repercussions, indicating a deteriorating security environment. Additionally, the breakdown of traditional arms control treaties and the modernization of nuclear arsenals contribute to increased instability. The lack of effective crisis communication channels further exacerbates the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation, reminiscent of Cold War tensions but in a more complex multipolar world.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reinforce commitments to existing arms control agreements and pursue new treaties to address emerging nuclear technologies.
Increase public awareness and advocacy for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.
Enhance training and protocols to prevent accidental launches and improve decision-making processes under stress.
Invest in technologies that improve verification and monitoring of nuclear arsenals to support transparency and trust-building.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Putin, observing nuclear drills, says nuclear weapons use is last resort Publisher: Devdiscourse Published May 21, 2026
- Russia Moves Nuclear Weapons Into Belarus During Latest Military Drills Publisher: Technology Org Published May 21, 2026
- Ambassador Leiter: A deal allowing Iran nuclear weapons is a bad deal Publisher: Israel National News Published May 21, 2026
- North Korea Sent Soldiers and Arms to Russia for the Ukraine War. Putin Helped Kim Jong Un Build Nuclear Weapons Publisher: National Security Journal Published May 20, 2026
- Russia Begins Nuclear Weapons Drills Publisher: NTD News Published May 20, 2026