Reinvigorate diplomatic efforts to re-establish arms control agreements and confidence-building measures.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Current assessment
The joint nuclear drills by Belarus and Russia, coupled with concerns over nuclear proliferation and modernization, elevate the global nuclear threat level.
May 19, 2026
Trend
Daily score history for Nuclear War.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The recent joint nuclear drills between Belarus and Russia mark a significant escalation in nuclear posturing, reflecting broader trends of deteriorating arms control frameworks and increased nuclear capabilities among major powers. The breakdown of key treaties, such as the INF Treaty, and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by countries like Russia and the United States contribute to an unstable strategic environment. Additionally, the lack of effective communication channels and emerging technologies, such as AI in military applications, further complicate crisis management and increase the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Enhance crisis communication channels between nuclear-armed states to prevent misunderstandings and accidental escalations.
Advocate for increased public awareness and education on nuclear risks and the importance of disarmament.
Conduct joint exercises focusing on de-escalation and conflict resolution to reduce the likelihood of nuclear engagement.
Invest in technologies that enhance verification and monitoring of nuclear activities to support arms control efforts.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Belarus Hosts Russian Nuclear Weapons, Russia Deploys Nuclear-Capable Oreshnik Missile System Publisher: WION Published date unavailable
- Belarus, Russia hold drills on combat use of nuclear weapons Publisher: Anadolu Ajansı Published date unavailable
- Germany Busts Secret Supply Network Feeding Russia’s Nuclear Weapons and Submarine Programs Publisher: UNITED24 Media Published date unavailable
- Belarus announces start of nuclear weapons combat deployment exercises Publisher: Українська правда Published date unavailable
- Belarus launches joint drills with Russia to practice nuclear weapons use Publisher: Temple Daily Telegram Published date unavailable