Urgently convene a summit to discuss the renewal or replacement of the New START Treaty.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START Treaty, coupled with increased nuclear rhetoric and potential secret tests by major powers, heightens global nuclear tensions.
February 15, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 15, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The expiration of the New START Treaty marks a significant setback in nuclear arms control, removing a key framework that has historically limited the nuclear arsenals of the U.S. and Russia. This, combined with allegations of secret nuclear tests by China and regional tensions involving Iran and Saudi Arabia, suggests an erosion of the global nuclear order. The lack of new treaties or negotiations to replace the New START Treaty, alongside modernization efforts by nuclear states, contributes to a strategic environment that is increasingly unstable and prone to miscalculations.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Increase diplomatic efforts to engage China in nuclear transparency and arms control discussions.
Advocate for enhanced public awareness and education on the risks of nuclear proliferation and the importance of arms control.
Strengthen crisis communication channels with potential adversaries to prevent misunderstandings and accidental escalations.
Invest in technologies that enhance nuclear verification and monitoring capabilities to support international arms control efforts.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Is China Conducting Secret Nuclear Weapons Tests? Publisher: The Diplomat – Asia-Pacific Current Affairs Magazine
- As New START treaty expires, can US and Russia reach a new nuclear weapons pact? Publisher: TRT World
- The new atomic era. The expiration of the New START Treaty last week showed that the world has grown too… Publisher: Новая газета Европа
- The U.S. claims China is conducting secret nuclear tests. Here's what that means Publisher: NPR
- Iran Ex-Commander Alleges Saudi Arabia Has Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Sri Lanka Guardian