Convene an urgent summit to discuss the renewal or replacement of the New START treaty to re-establish arms control frameworks.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START treaty, coupled with increased nuclear rhetoric and modernization efforts, has heightened global nuclear tensions.
February 14, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 14, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The expiration of the New START treaty marks a significant setback in arms control, removing a critical framework for limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. This development, alongside the modernization of nuclear arsenals by major powers and the potential for new arms races in regions like the Middle East and Europe, exacerbates global instability. The lack of effective communication channels and the breakdown of treaties further increase the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation, reminiscent of Cold War-era tensions but in a more complex multipolar world with emerging technologies that could destabilize strategic balances.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Increase diplomatic efforts to engage with Iran and other regional powers to prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.
Launch awareness campaigns to educate the public on the importance of nuclear disarmament and the risks of nuclear escalation.
Enhance crisis communication protocols to prevent accidental escalation and improve transparency between nuclear-armed states.
Invest in technologies that enhance verification and monitoring capabilities to support arms control agreements.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- We are entering a new period of danger with nuclear weapons Publisher: USA Today
- Turkey Says It Could Be Dragged Into Nuclear Arms Race Over Iran Publisher: Bloomberg
- US weighs expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal Publisher: Semafor
- The START nuclear weapons treaty is expiring this week, but Trump doesn’t seem to care Publisher: Flux | Matthew Sheffield
- Nukes Without Limits? A New Era After the End of New START Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations