Convene urgent multilateral talks to negotiate a successor to the New START treaty.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START treaty, coupled with ongoing tensions involving Iran and potential secretive nuclear activities by China, significantly elevates the nuclear threat level.
February 13, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 13, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to the expiration of the New START treaty, which has historically served as a key arms control agreement between the US and Russia. This expiration removes critical verification and transparency measures, increasing the risk of an arms race and miscalculations. Additionally, tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional responses, further exacerbate instability. Reports of potential secret nuclear tests by China add to the uncertainty and complexity of the global nuclear landscape. The combination of these factors, along with advancements in nuclear weapon technologies and reduced diplomatic engagements, contributes to a high-risk environment.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Increase diplomatic efforts to engage Iran in transparent nuclear negotiations to ensure compliance with non-proliferation norms.
Enhance intelligence and surveillance capabilities to monitor potential clandestine nuclear activities globally.
Advocate for renewed global disarmament initiatives and public awareness campaigns on nuclear risks.
Support organizations and movements advocating for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
Sources Monitored
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Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Is China Conducting Secret Nuclear Weapons Tests? Publisher: The Diplomat – Asia-Pacific Current Affairs Magazine
- US Vs Iran Nuclear War: Iran HIDING Nukes in ‘SECRET’ Tunnels? Nuke Site Entrances Sealed With DIRT! Publisher: Oneindia
- The START nuclear arms treaty expires. Is nuclear danger rising? Publisher: Northeastern Global News
- As New START treaty expires, can US and Russia reach a new nuclear weapons pact? Publisher: TRT World
- US weighs expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal Publisher: Semafor