Urgently facilitate negotiations for a new arms control agreement to replace New START.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START treaty and ongoing tensions involving nuclear capabilities in Iran and Russia contribute to an elevated global nuclear threat level.
February 12, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 12, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The expiration of the New START treaty marks a significant deterioration in arms control between the US and Russia, potentially leading to an unchecked arms race. Concurrently, tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and the potential for regional proliferation, as highlighted by Turkey's concerns, further exacerbate global instability. These developments occur in a strategic environment already strained by modernization of arsenals and reduced diplomatic channels, increasing the risk of miscalculation or escalation.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Enhance diplomatic efforts to address and verify Iran's nuclear activities, ensuring compliance with international norms.
Strengthen crisis communication channels between nuclear-armed states to prevent accidental escalation.
Advocate for increased public awareness and policy action on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
Support initiatives and organizations working towards nuclear risk reduction and arms control advocacy.
Sources Monitored
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Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Fears of a nuclear arms race rise as New START expires
- Turkish foreign minister warns of nuclear arms race if Iran gets the bomb Publisher: Long War Journal
- The START nuclear arms treaty expires. Is nuclear danger rising? Publisher: Northeastern Global News
- Turkey Says It Could Be Dragged Into Nuclear Arms Race Over Iran Publisher: Bloomberg.com
- The Real Risk After New START Isn’t Arms Racing Publisher: Foreign Policy