Nuclear War

Viewed record High Risk
History 339 daily observations
Method Curated sources and AI scoring
Viewing February 12, 2026 Return to latest

Nuclear War Risk

4.3 / 5
High Risk -0.2 from previous reading

Assessment for this date

The expiration of the New START treaty and ongoing tensions involving nuclear capabilities in Iran and Russia contribute to an elevated global nuclear threat level.

Record date

February 12, 2026

Trend

Viewing the record for February 12, 2026 within the full trend.

Risk Drivers

What is pushing the current reading.

The expiration of the New START treaty marks a significant deterioration in arms control between the US and Russia, potentially leading to an unchecked arms race. Concurrently, tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and the potential for regional proliferation, as highlighted by Turkey's concerns, further exacerbate global instability. These developments occur in a strategic environment already strained by modernization of arsenals and reduced diplomatic channels, increasing the risk of miscalculation or escalation.

Risk Reduction Actions

Priority actions generated from the current analysis.

International Body

Urgently facilitate negotiations for a new arms control agreement to replace New START.

Government

Enhance diplomatic efforts to address and verify Iran's nuclear activities, ensuring compliance with international norms.

Military

Strengthen crisis communication channels between nuclear-armed states to prevent accidental escalation.

NGO

Advocate for increased public awareness and policy action on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.

Citizen

Support initiatives and organizations working towards nuclear risk reduction and arms control advocacy.

Sources Monitored

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Selected Articles

Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.