Convene an emergency summit to discuss the implications of the New START expiration and explore new arms control frameworks.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START treaty and potential nuclear arms race between major powers significantly elevate global nuclear threat levels.
February 10, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 10, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The recent expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia marks a significant breakdown in nuclear arms control, removing the last remaining limits on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. This development, coupled with accusations of secret nuclear testing by China and the potential for a new arms race, exacerbates global tensions and undermines decades of progress in nuclear disarmament. The lack of effective communication channels and the modernization of nuclear arsenals further heighten the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation. Historically, periods without active arms control agreements have led to increased proliferation and heightened global tensions, suggesting a return to a more unstable and dangerous nuclear environment.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Engage in diplomatic efforts to re-establish communication channels and confidence-building measures between nuclear-armed states.
Increase advocacy and public awareness campaigns to pressure governments into pursuing arms control agreements.
Enhance crisis management protocols and communication systems to reduce the risk of accidental nuclear escalation.
Invest in technologies that improve nuclear detection and monitoring to ensure compliance with international norms.
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