Convene an emergency summit to discuss the implications of the New START treaty expiration and explore interim measures to prevent an arms race.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia, coupled with allegations of secret nuclear tests by China, significantly elevates global nuclear tensions.
February 9, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 9, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current nuclear threat level is heightened due to the expiration of the New START treaty, which has removed the last remaining arms control measure between the U.S. and Russia, potentially leading to an unchecked nuclear arms race. Historical context shows that such treaties have been crucial in maintaining strategic stability and reducing nuclear arsenals. Additionally, allegations of secret nuclear testing by China exacerbate the situation, as they suggest a potential shift in nuclear postures and an increase in global nuclear competition. The lack of effective communication channels and the breakdown of traditional arms control frameworks further contribute to the instability of the current strategic environment.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Engage in diplomatic efforts to re-establish communication channels with Russia and China to mitigate misunderstandings and reduce tensions.
Advocate for renewed public awareness and activism on nuclear disarmament to pressure governments towards arms control agreements.
Increase transparency in military exercises and nuclear postures to build confidence and reduce the risk of accidental escalation.
Invest in technologies that enhance verification and monitoring capabilities to support future arms control agreements.
Sources Monitored
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Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Fears of a nuclear arms race rise as New START expires
- Kremlin Regrets End of Nuclear Weapons Treaty With US Publisher: WION
- US claims China conducted secret nuclear weapons test in 2020 Publisher: Ynetnews
- The New START nuclear treaty is ending, opening the door for more proliferation of nuclear weapons Publisher: Scripps News
- Fears of new nuclear arms race grow as key U.S.-Russia treaty expires Publisher: NBC News