Urgently convene a summit to discuss new frameworks for nuclear arms control and non-proliferation.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia, coupled with accusations of secret nuclear tests by China, significantly elevates global nuclear tensions and risks of an arms race.
February 8, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 8, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The expiration of the New START treaty marks a pivotal moment in nuclear arms control, removing the last remaining cap on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, which historically have been crucial in maintaining strategic stability. This development, alongside allegations of secret nuclear tests by China, suggests a potential shift towards increased nuclear proliferation and modernization efforts by major powers. The lack of effective communication channels and the breakdown of long-standing treaties exacerbate the risk of miscalculations and unintended escalations, reflecting a deteriorating global nuclear security environment.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reinstate and enhance diplomatic communication channels with nuclear-armed states to reduce risks of miscalculation.
Increase public advocacy and education on the importance of nuclear arms control to build grassroots support for policy change.
Conduct joint exercises with allied nations to demonstrate commitment to collective security and deterrence.
Invest in technologies that enhance verification and monitoring capabilities to support future arms control agreements.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.