Facilitate urgent multilateral negotiations to establish new arms control agreements involving the U.S., Russia, and China.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia has heightened fears of a nuclear arms race, exacerbated by accusations of secret nuclear tests by China and a lack of new arms control agreements.
February 7, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for February 7, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The recent expiration of the New START treaty marks a significant deterioration in nuclear arms control, removing the last remaining limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals and increasing the risk of an arms race. This is compounded by allegations of secret nuclear tests by China, which further destabilize the global nuclear landscape. The absence of effective communication channels and new arms control agreements exacerbates the risk of miscalculation and escalation, reflecting a broader trend of eroding nuclear stability and increasing geopolitical tensions.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reinstate and strengthen diplomatic communication channels to reduce the risk of nuclear miscalculation.
Advocate for public awareness campaigns on the importance of nuclear disarmament and arms control.
Enhance crisis management protocols to prevent accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.
Support political candidates and policies that prioritize nuclear arms reduction and international cooperation.
Sources Monitored
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Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Fears of a nuclear arms race rise as New START expires
- End of the New START Treaty: Major powers evade control over their nuclear weapons - Pressenza Publisher: International Press Agency
- U.S.-Russia nuclear weapons treaty has expired. What happens now? Publisher: CBC
- ‘Grave moment’: end of US-Russia nuclear pact comes at worst possible time, UN chief warns Publisher: The Guardian
- Experts issue 'nuclear war is possible' warning as treaty between US and Russia ends today Publisher: LADbible