Convene emergency talks to address the potential resumption of nuclear testing and reinforce existing non-proliferation treaties.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to heightened tensions with Iran, potential resumption of US nuclear testing, and the expiration of key nuclear treaties.
January 31, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 31, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
Recent developments indicate a significant increase in nuclear risk, primarily due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, with threats of military action and potential nuclear proliferation. The US's consideration of resuming nuclear testing marks a departure from decades of policy aimed at reducing nuclear arms, which could trigger a new arms race. Additionally, the expiration of crucial nuclear treaties between major powers like the US and Russia exacerbates the risk of miscommunication and miscalculation, while modernization efforts and emerging technologies further destabilize the strategic balance.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions with Iran and seek a renewed nuclear agreement.
Increase public awareness and advocacy against the resumption of nuclear testing and for the strengthening of global nuclear disarmament initiatives.
Enhance crisis communication channels with nuclear-armed states to prevent accidental escalations.
Support organizations and initiatives that promote nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Hegseth Warns Iran Against Developing Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Military.com
- Hegseth warns Iran against developing nuclear weapons, saying US military 'prepared to deliver' Publisher: Yahoo
- US Military Ready to Act on Trump’s Iran Orders to Prevent Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Букви
- The US and Russia’s nuclear weapons treaty is set to expire. Here’s what’s at stake Publisher: Chatham House
- Trump appears to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years Publisher: PBS