Urgently convene a summit to negotiate the renewal or replacement of the New START treaty to re-establish limits on US and Russian nuclear arsenals.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Current geopolitical tensions, treaty expirations, and potential nuclear weapons testing contribute to an elevated nuclear threat level.
January 21, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 21, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The nuclear threat level is heightened due to several converging factors: the expiration of the New START treaty between the US and Russia, which removes critical limits on nuclear arsenals; the modernization of nuclear weapons systems, as evidenced by the completion of the B61-13 production; and the potential resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, which could undermine global non-proliferation norms. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly involving North Korea and Russia, further exacerbate the risk of nuclear conflict. The lack of effective communication channels and the breakdown of traditional arms control agreements contribute to a destabilized strategic environment, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation or accidental escalation.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reinforce diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in regions with nuclear capabilities, such as the Korean Peninsula and Eastern Europe.
Increase public awareness and advocacy for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation to pressure governments into maintaining and strengthening arms control agreements.
Enhance crisis communication channels between nuclear-armed states to prevent misunderstandings and accidental escalations.
Invest in technologies that improve nuclear detection and monitoring to ensure compliance with international treaties and norms.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- B61-13 first production unit completed ahead of schedule
- The expiration of New START threatens our collective security Publisher: The Elders
- The US’s Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia Is About to Lapse. What Happens Next? Publisher: The Nation
- Trump appears to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years Publisher: PBS
- Trump says nuclear weapons testing to resume in US after more than 30 years Publisher: BBC