Urgently negotiate an extension or replacement for the New START treaty to maintain strategic stability.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Recent developments, including the potential resumption of US nuclear testing and heightened geopolitical tensions, significantly elevate the global nuclear threat level.
January 20, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 20, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current global nuclear risk is exacerbated by several factors: the potential expiration of the New START treaty, which could lead to an unregulated arms race between the US and Russia; the modernization of nuclear arsenals, as evidenced by the completion of the B61-13 production unit; and geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons if faced with significant military setbacks. Additionally, the potential resumption of US nuclear testing, as suggested by recent political rhetoric, undermines decades of non-proliferation efforts and could trigger similar actions by other nuclear states, further destabilizing global security. The lack of effective communication channels and the rise of new technologies, such as AI and drone swarms, add layers of complexity and unpredictability to the nuclear landscape.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reinforce diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in regions with high nuclear risk, such as Eastern Europe and the Pacific.
Increase public awareness and advocacy against the resumption of nuclear testing to maintain global non-proliferation norms.
Enhance crisis communication channels and protocols to prevent accidental or unauthorized nuclear launches.
Develop and implement robust AI governance frameworks to mitigate risks associated with emerging technologies in military applications.
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