Convene an emergency session to address the expiration of the New START treaty and explore interim measures to prevent an arms race.
Nuclear War
Viewed record
High Risk
History
339 daily observations
Method
Curated sources and AI scoring
Nuclear War Risk
4.3 / 5
High Risk
+0.0 from previous reading
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to the expiration of key arms control treaties, modernization of nuclear arsenals, and increased geopolitical tensions involving nuclear powers.
Record date
January 18, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 18, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The expiration of the New START treaty and the potential resumption of nuclear weapons testing by the U.S. mark significant setbacks in global nuclear arms control, increasing the risk of a new arms race. Additionally, Russia's aggressive nuclear posture and threats, coupled with modernization efforts by major nuclear powers, contribute to heightened tensions. The lack of effective communication channels and the erosion of traditional arms control frameworks exacerbate the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation, making the current environment more precarious than in recent decades.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Re-engage in diplomatic efforts to renew or replace expiring arms control agreements with Russia and other nuclear powers.
Increase public awareness campaigns on the importance of nuclear disarmament and arms control to build grassroots support for policy change.
Enhance crisis communication protocols with other nuclear-armed states to reduce the risk of accidental escalation.
Develop and promote technologies that enhance verification and monitoring of nuclear activities to support arms control efforts.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Karaganov: Russia may launch nuclear strikes on Europe in a year Publisher: EADaily
- The expiration of New START threatens our collective security Publisher: The Elders
- Former Putin adviser: Russia will use nuclear weapons against Europe if it ‘comes close to a defeat’ Publisher: The Hill
- The US’s Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia Is About to Lapse. What Happens Next? Publisher: thenation.com
- Trump appears to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years Publisher: PBS