Facilitate urgent diplomatic dialogues to extend or replace the New START treaty to maintain strategic stability.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is heightened due to the potential lapse of key arms control treaties and discussions around resuming nuclear weapons testing.
January 15, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 15, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The global nuclear risk is elevated by the impending expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia, which has historically served as a cornerstone of nuclear arms control. Concurrently, there are alarming discussions about resuming nuclear weapons testing in the U.S., which would mark a significant reversal of decades-long non-proliferation efforts and could trigger a new arms race. Additionally, modernization efforts and the development of new nuclear capabilities by major powers, including China and Russia, further destabilize the strategic environment. The erosion of crisis communication channels and the introduction of emerging technologies, such as AI, which are being compared to nuclear weapons in terms of risk, exacerbate these tensions.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reaffirm commitments to nuclear testing moratoriums to prevent escalation and maintain global non-proliferation norms.
Increase advocacy and public awareness campaigns to highlight the dangers of renewed nuclear testing and arms races.
Enhance communication and transparency measures with other nuclear states to reduce the risk of miscalculations.
Engage in public discourse and pressure policymakers to prioritize arms control and non-proliferation initiatives.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- The US's Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia Is About to Lapse. What Happens Next? Publisher: The Nation
- Nuclear Weapons Without Limits? Publisher: Union of Concerned Scientists
- A Treaty Limiting Russian, US Nuclear Weapons Is About To Expire. What Happens Next? Publisher: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
- Trump appears to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years Publisher: PBS
- If the US resumes nuclear weapons testing, this would be extremely dangerous for humanity Publisher: The Conversation