Urgently negotiate an extension or replacement for the New START Treaty to maintain strategic stability.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Current nuclear risk is elevated due to the expiration of key arms control treaties, modernization of nuclear arsenals, and increased geopolitical tensions.
January 14, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 14, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The global nuclear threat level is heightened by the impending expiration of the New START Treaty, which has been a cornerstone of US-Russian arms control, alongside ongoing modernization efforts by nuclear states such as the US, Russia, and China. These developments are compounded by a lack of effective communication channels and the potential resumption of nuclear testing, which could undermine decades of non-proliferation efforts. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in regions like East Asia and the Middle East further exacerbate the risk of nuclear escalation.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Enhance diplomatic efforts to address regional tensions and prevent nuclear proliferation in hotspots like East Asia and the Middle East.
Increase transparency and communication channels with other nuclear powers to reduce the risk of accidental escalation.
Advocate for the reinforcement of international norms against nuclear testing and promote disarmament initiatives.
Support and participate in public campaigns that raise awareness about the dangers of nuclear weapons and the importance of arms control.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- B61-13 first production unit completed ahead of schedule
- A Treaty Limiting Russian, US Nuclear Weapons Is About To Expire. What Happens Next? Publisher: NewsGram
- A Treaty Limiting Russian, US Nuclear Weapons Is About To Expire. What Happens Next? Publisher: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
- Miniaturization and Modernization: The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Trump directs Pentagon to match Russia and China in nuclear weapons testing Publisher: The Guardian