Convene an emergency summit to address the expiration of the New START treaty and explore interim measures to maintain strategic stability.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to the expiration of key treaties, potential resumption of nuclear testing by the US, and heightened tensions involving nuclear-capable states.
January 12, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 12, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
Recent developments indicate a significant increase in nuclear risk, primarily due to the expiration of the New START treaty, which has historically served as a cornerstone for US-Russia arms control. The potential resumption of US nuclear testing, as suggested by recent statements from former President Trump, could further destabilize global nuclear norms and provoke similar actions from other nuclear states like Russia and China. Additionally, China's nuclear modernization and obfuscation strategies add to the uncertainty, while Japan's perceived nuclear ambitions exacerbate regional tensions. The lack of effective crisis communication channels and the breakdown of traditional arms control frameworks contribute to a precarious strategic environment reminiscent of Cold War-era nuclear brinkmanship.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reinforce diplomatic efforts to prevent the resumption of nuclear testing and promote adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Increase public awareness campaigns about the risks of nuclear testing and advocate for global disarmament initiatives.
Enhance communication and de-escalation protocols with nuclear-capable adversaries to prevent accidental or intentional escalation.
Engage in advocacy for nuclear disarmament and support political leaders who prioritize arms control and non-proliferation policies.
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