Reinstate diplomatic talks to renew and expand arms control treaties, including the New START.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is heightened due to the potential resumption of nuclear weapons testing by the United States, which could trigger a new arms race and destabilize global nuclear treaties.
January 11, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 11, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The recent directive by former President Trump to resume nuclear weapons testing marks a significant shift in U.S. nuclear policy, potentially undermining decades of arms control efforts and escalating tensions with other nuclear powers like Russia and China. This development comes at a time when key treaties, such as the New START, are expiring, and there is a general trend towards modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals by major powers. The lack of robust communication channels and diplomatic engagement further exacerbates the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation, making the current situation more precarious than in recent years.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to address the risks of renewed nuclear testing.
Launch public awareness campaigns highlighting the dangers of nuclear testing and advocating for disarmament.
Enhance crisis communication protocols with other nuclear-armed states to reduce the risk of accidental escalation.
Engage in advocacy and support organizations working towards nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- A Treaty Limiting Russian, US Nuclear Weapons Is About To Expire. What Happens Next? Publisher: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
- The New START Treaty is expiring. Where does that leave Europe's nuclear arsenal? Publisher: outrider.org
- Trump's remarks on nuclear testing upend decades of U.S. policy. Here's what to know Publisher: PBS
- Trump tells Pentagon to resume testing US nuclear weapons Publisher: Reuters
- Trump directs Pentagon to match Russia and China in nuclear weapons testing Publisher: The Guardian