Convene an emergency session to address the expiration of the New START Treaty and explore interim measures to prevent an arms race.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Recent geopolitical tensions, the potential resumption of nuclear weapons testing by the U.S., and the expiration of key arms control treaties significantly elevate the global nuclear threat level.
January 9, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 9, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current nuclear threat level is heightened due to a combination of factors: the potential resumption of nuclear testing by the U.S., which would undermine decades of non-proliferation efforts and could trigger a new arms race; the expiration of the New START Treaty, which leaves the world's two largest nuclear arsenals without formal constraints; and increased geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S., Russia, and China, which have been exacerbated by recent military actions and rhetoric. These developments occur in a context where crisis communication channels are reduced, and nuclear doctrines are shifting towards more aggressive postures, further destabilizing global security.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Engage in diplomatic efforts to re-establish communication channels between nuclear-armed states to reduce the risk of miscalculation.
Advocate for renewed international dialogue on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation to counteract the trend towards increased nuclear testing.
Enhance transparency and confidence-building measures to reassure adversaries and allies of defensive postures.
Support organizations and initiatives that promote nuclear disarmament and educate the public on the risks of nuclear escalation.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- A Treaty Limiting Russian, US Nuclear Weapons Is About To Expire. What Happens Next? Publisher: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
- Nuclear war 'could be just one step away' after Trump's Atlantic ship raid, Putin propagandist warns as new video shows US coast guard chasing down rogue tanker Publisher: Daily Mail
- 'Who Will Defend You?': Putin Openly Threatens Europe With Nuke Missiles After Trump Humiliates NATO Publisher: Times of India
- Trump appears to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years Publisher: PBS
- Trump directs Pentagon to match Russia and China in nuclear weapons testing Publisher: The Guardian