Convene urgent multilateral talks to address the potential resumption of nuclear testing and reinforce the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Recent developments, including potential U.S. nuclear testing, Japan's nuclear ambitions, and Iran's nuclear activities, have heightened global nuclear tensions.
December 29, 2025
Trend
Viewing the record for December 29, 2025 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to a combination of factors: the potential resumption of U.S. nuclear testing, which would disrupt longstanding arms control norms; Japan's consideration of nuclear weapons, which could destabilize regional security in East Asia; and Iran's ongoing nuclear activities, which continue to raise proliferation concerns. These developments are occurring in a context of deteriorating international arms control agreements, modernization of nuclear arsenals by major powers, and reduced diplomatic engagement, all of which contribute to a more precarious global nuclear environment.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Engage in diplomatic efforts to address Japan's nuclear ambitions and encourage adherence to non-proliferation commitments.
Increase public awareness and advocacy for nuclear disarmament and the strengthening of arms control treaties.
Enhance crisis communication channels with nuclear-armed states to prevent misunderstandings and accidental escalation.
Support and participate in initiatives aimed at nuclear risk reduction and disarmament advocacy.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons, prime minister's office source says Publisher: Japan Wire by KYODO NEWS
- Miniaturization and Modernization: The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Could Iran buy nuclear weapons from North Korea? Publisher: The International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Trump's remarks on nuclear testing upend decades of U.S. policy. Here's what to know Publisher: PBS
- Trump appears to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years Publisher: PBS