Facilitate multilateral talks to address regional security concerns and prevent nuclear proliferation in East Asia.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Recent tensions over Japan's potential nuclear ambitions and China's nuclear modernization efforts contribute to a heightened risk of nuclear proliferation and regional instability.
December 25, 2025
Trend
Viewing the record for December 25, 2025 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current nuclear threat level is influenced by several factors: China's ongoing modernization and miniaturization of its nuclear arsenal, which could alter regional power dynamics; the controversial discussions within Japan about potentially acquiring nuclear weapons, which have drawn strong reactions from neighboring countries like China and North Korea; and the broader context of weakened nuclear treaties and reduced diplomatic communication channels. These developments suggest a trend towards increased nuclear capabilities and strategic posturing, raising the risk of miscalculations or escalations in volatile regions.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reaffirm commitments to existing nuclear non-proliferation treaties and seek new agreements to address emerging nuclear technologies.
Increase public awareness and advocacy for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts globally.
Enhance crisis communication channels and confidence-building measures to reduce the risk of accidental or unauthorized nuclear launches.
Invest in technologies that support nuclear verification and monitoring to ensure compliance with international agreements.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- NORAD Set to Track Santa Tomorrow Night
- U.S. Space Forces Japan Celebrates First Year of Activation
- Trump Announces New Class of Battleship
- Hegseth Makes Christmas Morale Calls to Service Members Across the Globe
- FY25 Sees Best Recruiting Numbers in 15 Years
- This Week in DOW: Border Defense Medal; Warrior Dividend; Reforming Chaplain Corps
- War Department Ensures Valuable Wage Grade Employees Earn Prevailing Wages
- Marine Corps Announces Updated Physical Fitness Standards
- DLA Troop Support Subsistence Keeps Morale Alive With Holiday Meals
- Hegseth, Senior Leaders Honor Military's Top Recruiters
- Space-based nuclear detonation detection mission endures
- B61-13 first production unit completed ahead of schedule
- Sandia to help propel US semiconductor manufacturing
- Sandia’s unique role in nuclear deterrence
- B61-12 system production ends, sustainment begins
- Transforming environmental testing one shake at a time
- In-house advanced manufacturing techniques help meet mission needs
- Major milestone reached for key weapons component
- Engineer taps into Sandia’s deep knowledge base to design high-reliability component
- Bruised and bleeding: New materials show where they’re hurt
- Criminal Organizations and Nuclear Threats in Southeast Asia
- Book Review of "Human Factor in Nuclear Security: Establishing and Optimizing Security Culture"
- Book Review of "Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia: New Technologies and Challenges to Sustainable Peace"
- Effective Management of Disused Sealed Radioactive Sources in Uganda
- Saudi Arabian Universities' Need for a Nuclear Security Educational Textbook: A Systematic Review
- Deploying Small Modular Reactors in East Asia: Implications on Nuclear Governance
- Analysis of Nuclear Security and Safety Integration Using Survey Responses and Pairwise Comparison Methods
- The Media Framing of India’s Nuclear Weapons Discourse
- Is Nuclear Security an International Norm? A Constructivist Account of How Nuclear Security Shapes State Behavior
- Implementation of International Nuclear Counterterrorism Legal Instruments: The Case for Nuclear Forensics
- Empowering Voices: The Unsung Role of Women in Establishing and Sustaining the Pelindaba Treaty for an African Nuclear Weapon–Free Zone
- The Role of Human Security in Addressing the Inclusion of Women: Nuclear Security and the Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Jordan and Egypt
- Women in Nuclear Security: The United Arab Emirates Story
- Mustafa Kemal Atatürk: The First Gender Champion
- Vision of Nuclear Power Deployment in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Focus on Small Modular Reactors and the Regional Experience of Central Argentina de Elementos Modulares
- Liberalizing the Nuclear Energy Sector: Small Modular Reactors, Net-Zeros, and Perceptions in India
- Investigation of Radiation Absorption Behavior of Banana Leaves and Onion: A Cost-Effective Way of Radiation Protection
- An Evaluation on the Uncertainty for the Routine of Dosimetry Calibration at the National Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory, Albania
- Enhancing Nuclear and Radiological Security in Polarized Times: Safeguarding Against Extremist Insider Threats
- Fortifying Nuclear Security: Cultivating Vigilance Culture Among Personnel for Enhanced Prevention and Response
- 2025 in review: policy
- Defense Business Brief: Firefly’s moonshot; ‘Battleships’ and drone boats; Army logistics collab
- ‘Very, very strange time’: After a big 2025, what’s next for the defense industry?
- Pacific Marines modernize, prep for a busy year
- Trump’s new ‘battleship’ should not carry nukes
- USAF adds third contender for initial robot-wingman buy; picks 9 for next phase
- The D Brief: New ‘battleship’ announced; Nigeria, under US surveillance; China’s ICBMs; Boat-strike Qs; And a bit more.
- Now you can train for the next drone war on simulated Ukrainian front lines
- The twists and turns of Trump’s 2025 war on unions
- The D Brief: US hits 70 ISIS targets; Another tanker seized; Army seeks common C-UAS controller; More firms cleared for Golden Dome work; And a bit more.
- Another 1,000 defense companies chosen for $151B Golden Dome competition
- Pentagon preps to enforce ban on companies with ‘indirect’ ties to China
- To foster Middle East peace and prosperity, help Kurdistan fend off extremists
- The Pentagon wants a common network for its counter-drone systems
- The D Brief: Europe pledges aid to Kyiv; Dems seek boat-strike docs; Navy’s next frigate; Conflicts to watch; And a bit more.
- Defense One Radio, Ep. 201: Conflicts to watch in 2026
- Pentagon will cough up summaries of three years of safety investigations, per NDAA
- Leaders tapped to fill months-long vacancies atop NSA, Cyber Command
- The D Brief: Trump rebrands housing subsidies as ‘bonus’; Venezuelan navy starts escorting tankers; SOF needs jamming ranges; Big arms sale to Taiwan; And a bit more.
- Trump rebrands Congressionally-approved troop housing subsidy as ‘warrior dividend’ bonus
- Special operators seek larger ranges for electronic warfare and drone development and training
- Space Force Special Operations Command? Congress has questions, too
- The D Brief: Trump sets blockage on Venezuela; Europe warns of war; SecDef won’t release boat-strike video; Nominees to fill long-vacant posts; And a bit more.
- PM Office Source: Japan Needs Nuclear Weapons Publisher: theTrumpet.com
- Update: Japanese official's remarks about possessing nuclear weapons not isolated incident: FM spokesperson Publisher: Xinhua
- Has Iran's Khamenei authorised small nuclear weapons? What we know so far Publisher: Euronews.com
- The history of US nuclear weapons on UK soil Publisher: The Week
- Nuclear Weapons: In High Demand - ISPI Publisher: Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
- Beijing: Japanese official's nuclear weapons remarks 'not isolated' Publisher: news.cgtn.com
- China: Japan official's remarks about possessing nuclear weapons not isolated incident Publisher: chinadailyasia.com
- Japan nuclear arms remark sparks outcry Publisher: China Daily
- The international community should resolutely curb Japan’s nuclear ambitions: Global Times editorial Publisher: Global Times
- See inside the E-4B 'Nightwatch,' the president's 'doomsday plane' that can survive nuclear war Publisher: Business Insider Africa
- China says firmly committed to no-first-use nuclear weapons policy Publisher: news.cgtn.com
- Extended Deterrence and Strategic Depth Publisher: Global Security Review
- Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence Publisher: Royal United Services Institute
- Trump reiterates claim of preventing India-Pakistan nuclear conflict Publisher: The New Indian Express
- Trump repeats claim he stopped potential nuclear war between India and Pakistan Publisher: The Economic Times
- North Korea Warns Japan Over Nuclear Weapons Talk Publisher: اسلام تايمز
- Japan urged to stop provocative moves Publisher: China Military
- Article | Trump’s new ‘Trump-Class’ battleship will carry nuclear weapons Publisher: POLITICO Pro
- Xi promotes two generals; Japan nuclear weapons talk; US-China; Warning to Mexico; Nvidia chip smuggling investigation Publisher: Sinocism | Bill Bishop
- Hiroshima urges gov't maintain no-nuke policy in written opinion Publisher: Japan Today
- Japan's anti-nuclear weapons group protests official's remark | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News Publisher: nhk.or.jp
- People of Faith Helped Stop Nukes Once; Let’s Do It Again Publisher: Sojourners
- China shocked by Japan’s statements on nuclear weapons Publisher: plenglish.com
- Japanese Prime Minister’s Office Official Sparks Controversy with Nuclear Weapons Remarks Publisher: Plataforma Media
- China urges opposition to Japanese official's nuclear weapons remarks Publisher: news.cgtn.com
- The Necessity of Testing Our Nuclear Weapons Publisher: RealClearDefense
- Japan's nuclearization ambition must be halted Publisher: China Military
- China urges opposition to Japanese official's remarks about possessing nuclear weapons Publisher: China Daily
- Yes, The US Has Lost Not One, But Six Nuclear Weapons Publisher: SlashGear
- Another sign of Japan's right-wingers' dangerous ambition to break free of all postwar constraints Publisher: China Military
- Israel and nuclear war: The need for disciplined theory Publisher: JNS.org
- Japan’s attempt to ‘go nuclear’ must be prevented, says North Korea Publisher: Anadolu Ajansı
- North Korea calls to curb Japan’s move to nuclear weapons Publisher: The Jerusalem Post
- North Korea says Japan's nuclear ambitions must be stopped 'at any cost' Publisher: The Japan Times
- Former Japanese PM Ishiba: Nuclear weapons would never benefit Japan Publisher: news.cgtn.com
- North Korea’s KCNA: Japan’s ambition for nuclear weapons should be curbed Publisher: Arab News
- North Korea's KCNA: Japan's ambition for nuclear weapons should be curbed Publisher: Reuters
- U.S. appears to pour cold water on idea of Japan acquiring nukes Publisher: The Japan Times
- Japan Should Have Nuclear Weapons, Official Reportedly Says Publisher: Bloomberg.com
- If information is true, it’s quite serious: Chinese FM on senior Japanese official’s claim that ‘Japan should possess nuclear weapons’ Publisher: Global Times
- Senior official: Japan should possess nuclear weapons Publisher: 朝日新聞
- Japan vows never to possess nuclear weapons, rebuffing official’s idea Publisher: South China Morning Post
- Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons, prime minister's office source says Publisher: Japan Wire by KYODO NEWS
- Miniaturization and Modernization: The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace