Convene urgent talks to reinforce the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and prevent the resumption of nuclear testing.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is heightened due to renewed nuclear weapons testing discussions, increased geopolitical tensions, and modernization of nuclear arsenals.
December 18, 2025
Trend
Viewing the record for December 18, 2025 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The global nuclear threat level is elevated due to several concerning developments: the potential resumption of nuclear weapons testing by the United States, as indicated by recent statements, which could lead to a breakdown of long-standing nuclear test bans and provoke similar actions by other nuclear states. Additionally, the modernization of nuclear arsenals, as seen with the completion of the B61-13 and China's expansion of its nuclear forces, further destabilizes global nuclear balance. The geopolitical landscape is tense, with Russia's deployment of ICBMs near NATO borders and Iran's continued nuclear ambitions, raising the risk of miscalculation and conflict. These developments occur in a context of weakened arms control treaties and reduced diplomatic communication channels, reminiscent of Cold War-era tensions.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Engage in diplomatic efforts to renew and extend key arms control agreements, such as the New START treaty.
Enhance crisis communication channels with other nuclear-armed states to prevent escalation from misunderstandings.
Increase public awareness and advocacy against the resumption of nuclear weapons testing and modernization programs.
Invest in technologies that enhance verification and monitoring of nuclear activities to support international treaties.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- B61-13 first production unit completed ahead of schedule
- "Nuclear weapons to maintain balance of power," Putin says, as Russia plans to deploy ICBM near NATO border amid peace talks Publisher: Euromaidan Press
- Trump, Putin must move on extending START limits for nuclear weapons Publisher: San Antonio Express-News
- Risk of Nuclear Conflict ‘Highest Since Cold War,’ UN Disarmament Chief Warns Publisher: Politics Today
- Trump says nuclear weapons testing to resume in US after more than 30 years Publisher: BBC