Re-engage in diplomatic efforts to renew and expand arms control treaties, including New START and INF equivalents.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Recent discussions about resuming nuclear weapons testing in the U.S. and Russia, along with modernization efforts and deteriorating arms control agreements, significantly heighten global nuclear tensions.
December 16, 2025
Trend
Viewing the record for December 16, 2025 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to the potential resumption of nuclear weapons testing by the United States, as suggested by recent statements from former President Trump. This marks a significant shift from decades of U.S. policy and could trigger a new arms race, undermining existing arms control frameworks. Additionally, the modernization of nuclear arsenals by major powers, coupled with the breakdown of key treaties like the INF Treaty and the uncertain future of New START, contribute to a destabilized strategic environment. The lack of effective communication channels and emerging technologies further complicate crisis management, increasing the risk of miscalculation.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Facilitate multilateral discussions to prevent the resumption of nuclear testing and promote disarmament.
Enhance crisis communication channels and establish protocols to prevent accidental escalation.
Advocate for public awareness campaigns on the risks of nuclear proliferation and the importance of arms control.
Support political candidates and policies that prioritize nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- Risk of Nuclear Conflict ‘Highest Since Cold War,’ UN Disarmament Chief Warns Publisher: Politics Today
- New Nuclear Weapons Testing ‘Would Be Really Damaging to U.S. interests,’ Expert Says Publisher: outrider.org
- Miniaturization and Modernization: The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Russia and the US threatened to resume nuclear testing after several decades. Here is why it matters Publisher: outrider.org
- Trump tells Pentagon to resume testing US nuclear weapons Publisher: Reuters