Convene emergency sessions to reaffirm commitments to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and encourage dialogue between nuclear states.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The nuclear threat level is elevated due to discussions of resuming nuclear weapons testing by the US, potential reciprocal actions by Russia, and Japan's reconsideration of its non-nuclear principles.
November 15, 2025
Trend
Viewing the record for November 15, 2025 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
Recent statements by former President Trump about resuming nuclear weapons testing, coupled with Russia's declaration of reciprocal testing, signal a potential breakdown in the informal moratorium on nuclear tests, which has been a cornerstone of global nuclear stability since the end of the Cold War. Additionally, Japan's consideration of revising its non-nuclear stance and ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals, such as the US B61-13, contribute to an increasingly unstable strategic environment. These developments occur amidst a backdrop of eroding arms control treaties and reduced crisis communication channels, heightening the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Strengthen diplomatic efforts to prevent the resumption of nuclear testing and promote new arms control agreements.
Increase public awareness campaigns about the dangers of nuclear testing and advocate for non-proliferation measures.
Enhance communication and de-escalation protocols to prevent accidental or intentional nuclear exchanges.
Invest in technologies that improve nuclear detection and monitoring to ensure compliance with international treaties.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- 'We have to test' Donald Trump says of US nuclear weapons Publisher: WAAY 31 News
- Trump announced plans for nuclear tests - did not clarify about warhead detonation Publisher: Українські Національні Новини
- Trump says US will test nuclear weapons like other countries Publisher: GMA Network
- Japan mulls reviewing long-standing non-nuclear weapons principles: Report Publisher: Anadolu Ajansı
- Russia ‘will respond in kind’ to nuclear tests by any country: Lavrov Publisher: Al Jazeera