Nuclear War

The current global nuclear threat level is assessed as moderate due to several contributing factors. First, the military activities near nuclear power plants, such as those at Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, underscore the risks of nuclear facilities becoming targets in regional conflicts. This development marks a significant escalation in the nuclear risk landscape. Additionally, the rise of domestic violent extremism, although not yet significantly linked to nuclear or radiological incidents, poses a latent threat that could intersect with nuclear security concerns if not adequately addressed. The spread of nuclear technology, including the development of small modular reactors and the involvement of private sectors in nuclear energy, introduces new security challenges and proliferation risks. These factors are compounded by the ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals and the erosion of traditional arms control agreements, which could lead to a destabilized strategic environment. The combination of these elements suggests a heightened, though not yet critical, level of nuclear threat.