Convene urgent diplomatic talks to renew or replace expiring arms control treaties.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is heightened due to the expiration of key arms control treaties, advancements in nuclear weapons technology, and increased geopolitical tensions.
January 17, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 17, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The expiration of the New START treaty and discussions around resuming nuclear testing signal a breakdown in arms control frameworks that have historically mitigated nuclear risks. Concurrently, modernization efforts, such as the completion of the B61-13 and advancements in China's nuclear capabilities, indicate a renewed arms race. Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia's aggressive posture and potential nuclear threats, further exacerbate the risk. These developments occur in a context of reduced diplomatic communication channels and emerging technologies like AI, which complicate strategic stability.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Increase investments in nuclear risk reduction and crisis communication mechanisms.
Enhance training and protocols for nuclear command and control to prevent accidental escalation.
Advocate for public awareness campaigns on the importance of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
Develop and promote technologies that enhance verification and monitoring of nuclear activities.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- B61-13 first production unit completed ahead of schedule
- The expiration of New START threatens our collective security Publisher: The Elders
- Former Putin adviser: Russia will use nuclear weapons against Europe if it ‘comes close to a defeat’ Publisher: The Hill
- The US’s Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia Is About to Lapse. What Happens Next? Publisher: The Nation
- Miniaturization and Modernization: The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace