Urgently facilitate dialogue between nuclear-armed states to extend or renew expiring treaties.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to potential treaty expirations, modernization of arsenals, and increased geopolitical tensions involving nuclear rhetoric.
January 13, 2026
Trend
Viewing the record for January 13, 2026 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
Recent developments indicate a significant increase in nuclear risk, with the potential expiration of key treaties between the US and Russia, and discussions about resuming nuclear weapons testing in the US, which could destabilize global nuclear norms. Additionally, China's nuclear modernization and obfuscation, along with geopolitical tensions involving North Korea and Iran, contribute to a heightened threat environment. The lack of effective communication channels and the modernization of nuclear arsenals further exacerbate the risk, reflecting a departure from historical arms control efforts and increasing the potential for miscalculation or escalation.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Reinforce diplomatic efforts to prevent the resumption of nuclear weapons testing and promote arms control agreements.
Enhance crisis communication channels with adversaries to reduce the risk of accidental escalation.
Advocate for public awareness campaigns on the dangers of nuclear proliferation and testing.
Engage in advocacy and support initiatives that promote nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- A Treaty Limiting Russian, US Nuclear Weapons Is About To Expire. What Happens Next? Publisher: NewsGram
- How China’s Nuclear Obfuscation Could End the World Publisher: The National Interest
- Seoul calls for freeze of North’s nuclear programme, Chinese mediation Publisher: Al Jazeera
- Miniaturization and Modernization: The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapons Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Trump appears to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years Publisher: PBS