Re-engage in international arms control negotiations to prevent an arms race and ensure strategic stability.
Nuclear War
Nuclear War Risk
Assessment for this date
Recent developments, including the U.S. consideration of resuming nuclear testing and China's warnings of nuclear conflict risks, indicate a heightened nuclear threat environment.
December 5, 2025
Trend
Viewing the record for December 5, 2025 within the full trend.
Risk Drivers
What is pushing the current reading.
The current nuclear threat level is elevated due to several destabilizing factors: the potential resumption of U.S. nuclear testing, which would mark a significant departure from decades of non-testing policy and could provoke similar actions from other nuclear states; China's warnings about nuclear conflict risks following U.S. rhetoric; and ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals, as evidenced by the completion of the B61-13 production unit. These developments occur in a context of weakened arms control frameworks, such as the breakdown of the INF Treaty and uncertainties surrounding New START, compounded by advancements in military technologies and reduced diplomatic communication channels, all contributing to a more volatile global nuclear landscape.
Risk Reduction Actions
Priority actions generated from the current analysis.
Strengthen crisis communication channels between nuclear-armed states to reduce the risk of miscalculation.
Enhance transparency and confidence-building measures to reassure adversaries and allies of defensive postures.
Advocate for public awareness and policy action against the resumption of nuclear testing.
Support initiatives and leaders committed to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.
Sources Monitored
Visible feeds used in this category's nightly run.
Selected Articles
Supporting articles referenced in the latest score.
- B61-13 first production unit completed ahead of schedule
- China Warns of Nuclear Conflict Risks After Trump Orders Testing Publisher: Bloomberg.com
- Trump says nuclear weapons testing to resume in US after more than 30 years Publisher: BBC
- Trump suggests the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons Publisher: NPR
- Trump tells Pentagon to resume testing US nuclear weapons Publisher: Reuters